The barge highway carrying US grain from the Midwest to Gulf export elevators, plus a large volume of fertiliser, coal and petrochemicals moving the other way. Its capacity is set by water level, so it fails seasonally and predictably rather than suddenly.
Standing structural relationships, not forecasts. We name the direction and the mechanism, and link the published index where you read the current value — we do not quote a number we cannot cite.
Draft restrictions cut tonnage per tow without closing the river, so barge freight quoted as a percentage of tariff responds within days.
Grain displaced from barges moves to rail and truck, tightening those markets during the autumn harvest peak.
Short-haul grain trucking absorbs volume the river cannot carry, concentrated in the Midwest and Gulf origin regions.
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